SBF Still Waiting for a Pardon

Donald Trump has once again drawn national attention after commuting the sentence of David Gentile, the former head of GPB Capital. Gentile had been handed a seven-year prison term for defrauding thousands of investors, yet he walked free after just twelve days. His sentence was reduced, and—most notably—every financial penalty was wiped away: all fines, restitution, and other monetary sanctions were eliminated. In practice, this means he will not have to return any of the money gained through misleading claims about the fund’s performance, which prosecutors say brought in roughly $1.6 billion from investors.

Trump’s decision has sparked major controversy, especially since the White House justified it by pointing to alleged prosecutorial errors made during the Biden administration. Officials argued that the case had been improperly framed as a Ponzi scheme and that Gentile had raised concerns about false testimony. Meanwhile, Trump allies, including advisers who handle pardons, have portrayed the move as an example of offering someone a “second chance.”

At the same time, Sam Bankman-Fried is still waiting for even the faintest sign that Trump might consider granting him clemency. SBF was convicted of massive financial misconduct tied to the collapse of FTX, and his previous connections to funding Joe Biden’s campaign hardly help his chances with the current president. Betting markets aren’t optimistic either: on Polymarket his odds sit at about 2 percent, and on Kalshi they’re only slightly better at 4 percent.

Still, SBF isn’t giving up. His parents have been lobbying people close to Trump, attempting to cast his case as politically motivated. Bankman-Fried himself has been highly active on social media, insisting that FTX actually had enough assets at the time of its downfall. He has also publicly praised Trump’s other clemency decisions—for example, the pardon of former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández, who happened to share his prison block.

For now, though, nothing suggests that Trump intends to extend the same generosity to SBF as he has to Gentile or other beneficiaries. Despite his family’s efforts and attempts to frame the case as political persecution, the president continues to sidestep the name of FTX’s founder. What ultimately happens to Bankman-Fried will become clearer only next year.