Crypto Markets Gripped by Uncertainty

Tuesday morning trading in Asian markets brought slight declines in cryptocurrency prices. Bitcoin remains near the $114,000 mark, while Ethereum hovers around $4,120. The week is shaping up to be an exceptionally busy one, as investors simultaneously monitor U.S.–China diplomatic talks, a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy, and earnings reports from the world’s largest tech companies.

According to data from Polymarket, investors are highly optimistic about the chances of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China. Following successful discussions in Malaysia, markets are now pricing in a 92% probability that a tariff deal will be signed by November 10. The framework is expected to be finalized during Thursday’s APEC summit in Seoul, where Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet.

Expectations of an agreement have fueled risk appetite, driving gains in both tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. On Sunday, Bitcoin briefly reached $116,200, while shares of mining and AI-related companies such as Hut 8, CleanSpark, and IREN rose by 2–3%.

Not all forecasts are equally bullish, however. Another Polymarket contract shows only a 36% chance that Beijing will lift its rare-earth export ban before year-end. This suggests investors expect tactical cooperation on trade rather than a fundamental improvement in U.S.–China relations. The contrast between these forecasts indicates that Thursday’s meeting may deliver a political win, but not necessarily a structural breakthrough.

Singapore-based QCP Capital noted that the outcome of the Trump–Xi talks could have a greater short-term impact on cryptocurrencies than the Fed’s rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. Analysts also pointed out that the Fed may be nearing the end of its three-year tightening cycle, which could boost market liquidity and support risk assets.

Still, QCP emphasized that Bitcoin needs to hold above $116,000 to confirm a sustained return to an uptrend. So far, the cryptocurrency has remained largely flat over the past month, threatening to break a seven-year streak of positive October performance—a pattern traders affectionately call “Uptober.”

Market sentiment is also weighed down by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its 26th day, which has limited access to key economic data and complicated the Fed’s policy assessment. Investors are also eagerly awaiting quarterly earnings from major tech giants—Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Google—for clues about consumer resilience in the current economic environment.

Data from derivatives markets indicate that sentiment around Bitcoin and Ethereum has stabilized, with investors easing off on aggressive downside hedges. Even so, QCP experts believe that a decisive rally will only be confirmed if Bitcoin closes the month above $116,000.

The coming week is therefore shaping up to be a tense one for crypto markets, as politics, central bank decisions, and liquidity conditions determine whether “Uptober” can keep its winning streak alive.