Why Isn’t Bitcoin Rising?

Bitcoin has struggled to regain strong upward momentum in recent months, and according to billionaire investor Michael Novogratz, the reason is fairly straightforward. Investor attention is currently centered on artificial intelligence, data centers, and the semiconductor industry. Much of the capital that previously flowed into cryptocurrencies is now being directed toward these rapidly growing technology sectors.

However, the founder of Galaxy Digital does not see this as a negative sign for Bitcoin. In his view, the cryptocurrency is simply going through a period of consolidation following its previous rally. Since reaching its all-time high, Bitcoin has corrected by roughly 40%, but Novogratz argues that this should not be interpreted as a market collapse or a warning sign of deeper trouble. Instead, he sees it as a natural cooling-off phase, with the market lacking a strong catalyst to drive the next major leg higher.

Macroeconomic conditions are also playing a role. Novogratz believes interest rate cuts are unlikely in the near future, limiting the flow of fresh capital into riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.

The Galaxy Digital CEO also commented on Bitcoin’s well-known halving cycles. He believes that market psychology now plays a larger role than the reduction in supply itself. Expectations of post-halving price increases have become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy, and according to Novogratz, investors who took profits toward the end of last year made a sensible decision.

In the short term, he identifies the $72,000–$73,000 range and the area around $60,000 as key support levels for Bitcoin.

During the interview, Novogratz also discussed a $1.3 billion transaction involving BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF. The trade was executed off the main market, and he highlighted that such a large sale was completed at a price only about 2% below Bitcoin’s prevailing market value. In his opinion, this demonstrates just how liquid the Bitcoin market has become.

Novogratz further noted that Galaxy Digital helped facilitate the sale of $9 billion worth of Bitcoin for a single institutional client last year. According to him, the transaction had only a limited impact on market prices, reflecting the depth and maturity of the Bitcoin market. He believes this serves as an important signal for major financial institutions considering exposure to digital assets.

The Galaxy Digital chief also addressed the regulatory landscape in the United States. He lowered his estimate for the likelihood of Congress passing the CLARITY Act from 95% to 60%. According to Novogratz, political tensions and the approaching elections have made progress on the legislation more difficult. Despite this, he still considers the bill an important step toward the long-term development of the cryptocurrency industry in the United States.