SBF’s Chances of a Pardon Are Rising

Bets on a potential pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried have soared on the prediction platform Polymarket, following Donald Trump’s decision to pardon Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.

The probability of a pardon for the former FTX chief jumped from 5.6% to 15% within 12 hours of Trump’s announcement, according to market data.

More than $6.5 million has now been wagered across related Polymarket contracts, with over $300,000 specifically staked on Bankman-Fried’s possible clemency. In a separate market speculating on his potential prison release in 2025, odds spiked from 4.3% to 19.1% before settling around 15.5%.

Bankman-Fried is currently serving a 25-year sentence for fraud and money laundering. He has appealed the verdict, but legal experts say it’s unlikely that any ruling will be handed down before year-end — making a presidential pardon his only realistic route to early freedom.

Trump’s move to pardon Zhao has reignited fierce debate in the crypto world. Analysts emphasize that Zhao’s case differs significantly from Bankman-Fried’s.

Zhao received a four-month sentence for violating anti–money laundering laws — an offense tied to compliance lapses at Binance, not theft of user funds. As attorney Sasha Hodder noted, “CZ was never accused of stealing or defrauding anyone — his violations were administrative, not moral.”

Bankman-Fried, by contrast, was convicted of misappropriating billions of dollars in customer assets. “It’s hard to imagine a Trump administration extending clemency to him,” said lawyer Jake Chervinsky, adding that the former FTX CEO’s status as one of the Democratic Party’s top donors before FTX’s 2022 collapse makes him “a particularly unpopular figure among Republicans.”

Commenting on Zhao’s pardon, Trump said he had heard that CZ “did nothing wrong” and called the case “a witch hunt by the Biden administration.”

Zhao has long maintained friendly ties with the Trump family and is a key partner in their cryptocurrency venture, World Liberty Financial.