Nevada Blocks Kalshi Prediction Markets

A judge in Nevada has extended a temporary ban on Kalshi’s operations related to sports prediction markets. The decision was made during a hearing in Carson City, where the court reviewed a motion filed by the state’s gambling regulator.

Judge Jason Woodbury also approved a preliminary injunction preventing Kalshi from offering certain products until the broader legal case is resolved. The existing order, originally issued on March 20, has been extended by two weeks to allow time to refine the legal details.

The initial restrictions covered not only sports-related contracts but also those tied to entertainment and elections. The judge concluded that purchasing a contract based on the outcome of a baseball game is essentially no different from placing a traditional sports bet. In his view, this constitutes a form of gambling that requires proper licensing.

State regulators have long sought to limit the activities of companies offering prediction markets. They argue that sports-related products function as betting and should therefore fall under local gambling laws. Meanwhile, Kalshi and similar firms maintain that they operate at the federal level as derivatives markets, and are not subject to state regulations.

This position is supported by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which considers itself the appropriate supervisory authority. In recent legal actions, it has emphasized that individual states may be overstepping their jurisdiction.

The case extends beyond Nevada. On the same day, a hearing took place in Arizona, where Kalshi is attempting to block actions by local authorities. The state’s attorney general had previously accused the company of violating the law, and a federal court is now reviewing arguments from both sides.

Prediction markets are platforms where users forecast future events by placing money on specific outcomes. These can cover almost anything—from election results and sports events to highly unusual scenarios. For example, users may bet on whether a specific NBA player will make a small gesture during a game, or whether a military action—such as a U.S. attack on Iran—will occur on a given day.

In Poland, American prediction platforms are banned and blocked, mainly due to the lack of clear legal regulations. Critics argue that such markets can encourage abuse, including the use of insider information. In the past, there have been cases where unknown individuals achieved significant profits by accurately predicting events related to U.S. government actions in countries like Venezuela or Iran.