Ethereum at Risk of Losing Its Position

The cryptocurrency market may experience a significant shift this year. Predictions on forecasting platforms suggest there is a 61% chance that Ethereum will lose its position as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization before the end of the year.

As recently as January, the probability of such a scenario was estimated at only 14%, showing how dramatically expectations have changed in just two months. The main candidate expected to surpass Ethereum is currently the stablecoin Tether.

Since its launch in 2015, Ethereum has held the second position in the cryptocurrency market for most of its existence. However, it has never managed to overtake Bitcoin, although it came close during the market surge in 2017. At the height of the ICO boom, Ethereum accounted for around 30% of the entire crypto market, while Bitcoin’s dominance briefly fell below 40%. At its peak, Ethereum’s market value reached roughly 80–83% of Bitcoin’s capitalization, sparking speculation that the two projects might eventually switch places. Ultimately, this never happened.

Despite Ethereum’s strong position, there were moments when it briefly slipped to third place. In 2018, during a period of high volatility in the altcoin market, the XRP token managed to surpass Ethereum several times in terms of market capitalization. This first occurred in early January 2018 and happened again later that same year.

Today, the biggest threat to Ethereum’s position is the rapid growth of Tether. The dollar-pegged stablecoin has already reached a market capitalization of around $184 billion. If the crypto market remains in a bearish phase, projects focused on liquidity and stability may become more important than platforms centered on decentralized applications.