Chinese Miner Points to Potential BTC Market Bottom
A prominent Chinese Bitcoin miner believes BTC could bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 by late 2026.
Bitcoin could reach the bottom of the current bear market between October and December 2026, according to Jiang Zhuoer, one of China's best-known Bitcoin miners. Based on his long-term market model, the world's largest cryptocurrency could decline to a range between $42,000 and $44,000.
Jiang's forecast is based on Strategy's mNAV indicator, which compares the company's market capitalization with the value of its Bitcoin holdings. He noted that the metric has fallen to 0.72, approaching the 0.70 level recorded in May 2022. While he believes this could represent a bottoming zone for the indicator, he cautions that it does not yet confirm a price bottom for Bitcoin itself.
The analyst pointed out that during the previous market cycle, mNAV reached its low in May 2022 when Bitcoin was trading at around $31,017. However, Bitcoin did not establish its actual market bottom until November 21, 2022, when the price fell to approximately $15,476—nearly six months later.
Using his long-term model, Jiang identifies October 31, 2026, as the most likely date for the current bear market to end, with Bitcoin trading near $44,016. He also emphasized that the model is more reliable in estimating the timing of a market reversal than predicting the exact price level.
The forecast comes at a time when Bitcoin is once again facing renewed selling pressure. During June, the cryptocurrency dropped below the $60,000 mark for the second time this month, triggering more than $850 million in liquidations across the crypto market. Shares of Strategy have also come under pressure as investor sentiment toward cryptocurrency-related companies continues to weaken.
Jiang stressed that his outlook should be viewed as a model-based scenario rather than a certainty. Bitcoin's price remains influenced by a wide range of factors, including market liquidity, spot ETF inflows, interest rate expectations, leverage across crypto exchanges, and broader macroeconomic conditions.
He also revealed that he has sold part of his Bitcoin holdings and opened short positions for both the short and medium term. According to Jiang, he plans to return to buying Bitcoin on
