The End of Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycles?

Hunter Horsley, the CEO of Bitwise and manager of $15 billion in assets, stated on social media that the popular four-year Bitcoin cycle model has stopped working. In his view, the market’s current behavior is creating an entirely new reality.

Horsley pointed out that many investors still assume 2026 will be a weaker year for Bitcoin, following the old pattern. But this expectation alone influences market behavior and—according to the CEO—creates a domino effect. Investors begin selling their positions as early as 2025 to avoid a presumed drop the following year. This in turn makes 2025 a period of weakness and causes the entire cycle to fall apart. Once the pattern breaks, 2026 becomes a year without a clear direction.

He noted that the idea of fixed cycles comes from the “old crypto era.” The arrival of Bitcoin ETFs, the entry of major institutions, and changes in the market structure have created an entirely new environment. Horsley added that Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for roughly six months, but this phase appears to be nearing its end.

According to Bitwise Asset Management’s latest report, Bitcoin’s compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) could reach around 28.3% over the next decade—through 2035.